Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Highest Paid Players Dont Win Championships*

An abbreviated study of the MLB highest paid players from the years 1906-2021.  That is a 116 years of baseball.  The highest paid player has been on the World Series winning team 16 times in 116 years.  (13.8%)  Of the 16 times this has happened, 14 of those were the New York Yankees.  So if you are not the Yankees the likelihood of you paying the "best" player and winning the World Series is very low... like 2% low.  If winning the World Series was a random draw (i.e. 1 out of 30 chance) that would put your chances at 3.3%.  

Of the records we could find starting in 1988 until 2022 (35 years) on team payrolls the New York Yankees have been #1 for highest team payroll 20 of those years (57%).  This yielded them 5 championships over that 35 year period.  (%15 championship win rate)  They also have the most World Series Titles (27).  Why is this important?  It is important to note that the Yankees are an outlier.  When they win they dont just buy the best player they buy several of the best players.  We think this matters because we believe the Yankees know that just buying the best player does not work.  Why?  Because one player can be neutralized.  It is easy to walk Babe Ruth every time he comes up but if Lou Gehrig is batting behind him it makes it a lot harder.  The Yankees buy several of the best players and that is what has lead to winning teams.  Although for the amount of money they spend a %15 win rate is not all that impressive.  (We feel this works quite well for the sport in general.  It is just enough to make them the anit-hero but not so dominant that you feel like the other teams dont have a chance to win)

When was the last time the highest paid players team won the championship?  2019.  Wow.  That is pretty recent and quite contrary to the headline of this article.  Did we just make that up to so people would find a nice lake to sit next to and reed this?  Stephen Strasburg was the highest paid MLB player in 2019 at $38.3 million.  The 2nd highest paid player was teammate Max Scherzer at $37.4 million.  The Nationals didnt pay for the best player they paid for 2 of the best players.  They were #4 in opening day team payroll at $181 million and had these 2 players making up %42 of the team payroll.  The only other time the top paid player won the World Series (not on the Yankees) was 1920 when Tris Speaker won with the Cleveland Indians.  Tris Speaker was tied for the highest salary with Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth, and also happened to be Player and Manager.  These instances only reinforce the half baked conclusion.  There are too many players on the field to pay just 1 player an extremely large sum and pay the rest a very low sum.  The risk is very high if that player gets injured or under performs for the season that there are very few talented players to pick up the slack.  The reward is that 1 player has a minimal impact on the outcome of any given game.  (It is true occasionally during 162 games a player will come up in a game winning situation.  A success or failure in this situation will ultimately prove to the fan how overpaid the player is or how he is totally worth his salary.  With the actual consistency of performance being highlighted or negated by certain "clutch" performances)  A player on defense could get very few plays in any particular game especially in the outfield.  A player will usually get 3 or 4 at bats a game and will hit successfully about 1 of those at-bats.  This results in 1 player having a limited ability to control the outcome of any particular game.   

What is the lesson here?  Paying only 1 of the best players doesnt work if your goal is to win a championship.  See Mike Trout with the Angels highest paid for several years with no championships.  See Alex Rodriguez the highest paid player in the MLB for 12 years and managed only 1 championship. (with the Yankees* see Yankees exclusion rule)  What is the lesson for the players?  If you want to be the highest paid player to satisfy your ego or to just make that cash... Great!  Go for it!  But if you want to be on a winning team... you should probably play for the Yankees or leave some money left over to spread around to your teammates.  A great team beats a great individual in most things even outside the wide world of sports.



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